The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) recently predicted high school graduates will peak between 3.8 million and 3.9 million. After 2025, the population is expected to decline in 2030 to 3.1% lower than 2023 levels and 10.5% lower in 2041. The estimated decline in graduates is largely determined by birth rate, how quickly students’ progress through high school and earn diplomas, migration and mortality patterns, and the college-going rate. Specifically, 38 states are expected to experience declines while 12 states and Washington, D.C., will actually see increases. Overall, the decline in high school graduation rates will cause national workforce challenges and shift the ethnic and racial makeup of high school graduates. Proactive solutions to manage the expected decline include improving the immediate college-going rate of high school graduates and the progression and retention of students who do enter college.
